Once again, Dems out thought, out maneuvered, capitulate to threats of a shutdown, sell out Ukraine...

House Speaker McCarthy outbluffs them and intimidates them....

Picture by Haiyun Jiang for the NY Times, Sat. Sept. 30,2023

Update: October 6, 2023 (Friday):

A Washington Post columnist agreed with my earlier assessment of the Dems being entirely outmaneuvered by the Far Right, and more ambiguously by ex-speaker Kevin McCarthy on the Ukraine appropriation. One gets in those situations when you are afraid of the unscrupulous club the other side wields: gov’t shutdown in the case of the Congress and the Right in the US, the Dems willing to deal; nuclear blustering by Putin in the case of foreign policy in Europe, NATO and the US unwilling to get “winning” weapons to Ukraine, preferring a long, unpredictable stalemate which is now backfiring on the US policy hopes, which themselves are pretty ambiguous.

Here’s the link: the shutdown/nuclear club analogy is mine - I’m not aware of anyone else using it. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/10/06/ukraine-aid-congress-maga-gaetz/

The column is by Josh Rogin and is entitled: “MAGA Republicans outplayed Kevin McCarthy and the Democrats on Aid to Ukraine.” It appeared Oct. 6th, in the WaPo.

Update: October 5, 2023: a commentator at the YouTube site “Halitics” which contains my interview with MoCo attorney and journalist Hal Ginsberg told me that I should “stop making excuses” for Rep. Jamall Bowman for pulling the fire alarm.

Here was my written comment back:

Hello jefflinder1161, thanks for taking the time to comment. I find a lot of citizens today won't enter that "arena" because of the tone of the comment "wars," which reminds them of the political atmosphere in Washington, which, of course is not very civil. I know your comment is meant to be constructive, and indeed, doing some Googling about Bowman to bring me up to date before answering you, I've found the story changing substantially since the very first one I heard which I mentioned in the segment with Hal Ginsberg.

Bowman himself now says that he was locked out of the building trying to get there in time for the vote, and pulled the firm alarm by mistake thinking it was a way to unlock the door. That doesn't sound very convincing to me, and I'm not going to drive 400 miles round trip from Western Maryland to visually inspect the exact fixture that was pulled to see if the story was plausible. Therefore, he'll be on his own with his attorney to defend himself against whatever charges the Republican majority decides to bring against him. I'm sure they'll be fair, judging from the comments referring back to the Jan. 6th insurrection and wishing for Bowman punishments and sentences like the judges have handed out for the Insurrection. I know in my political heart that the R's will be scrupulously fair, and surely be able to judge this action and its rationale fairly, setting aside all the possible inflammatory contexts in today's dramas on Capital Hill - and the many in the nation's court rooms which invoke powerful symbolism on their own.

For readers who might not know, Bowman is considered a member of "The Squad," or an informal caucus considered to be to the left of the formal Progressive Caucus. He played college football, earned a Master's in counseling and then a Ph.D. in education and taught and served as a principal in a "reform" high school. That caught my attention when I looked up his bio on Wikipedia a few months ago when his decision to "get in the face" of some of the far Right Republican Reps caught my attention. I know, sensing the spirit of fairness growing in the Republican Right in Congress, that Bowman's decision to "push back" will have no influence on their handling of the case of the fire alarm.

In deference to your "stop making excuses" for him comment, yes, there is deep irony in his educational background and serving as a school principal and then pulling a fire alarm in Congress. I have to admit though, stepping back from yours and the Republican perspective, that there is a poignant literary symbolism here, and perhaps, if I were his attorney, I might steer in that direction: what he did, indeed told the nation with an exclamation point what many now believe: that our institutions and our democracy are on fire, so someone better pull the alarm before the "House" burns down.

Editor’s Note, October 3, 2023:

Dear Citizens and Elected Officials:

I have been invited by talk show host Hal Ginsberg to exchange views on these remarkable events: the hire wire postponement of a federal shutdown, the 45 day repreive and the vote to oust House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.  The program will air on Wednesday, October 4th, on Hal's  "Halitics" program, which can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/@halitics  

I look at the events which got us "here"  at three different, yet interlocked levels of dynamics: 

First, American democracy is seen as being troubled, if not crippled by lack of decisive majorities for nearly all its proceedings. So troubled even in domestic eyes that a majority of voters do not want either of the two leading candidates for President as Larry Hogan stated on CNN last night.   

Second, at the tactical levels of proceedings, with a small minority of the Republic Right caucus willing to, since the days of Newt Gingrich in the 1990's, shut down the government in an attempt to reform budget procedures or obtain specific policy objectives.  Polls show American citizens dislike the tactic. However, disappointed Green New Dealers, Sanders Supporters, and even advocates for National Health Insurance for All don't use these tactics after being defeated.  Yet it appears the Republican Right/Libertarian Right believes that in inside maneuvering, "He Who Dares Wins."   

Third, at the vast differences between the parties (and factions of both parties) on the ideological/philosophic level:  immigration/border; women/abortion, the role and size of the federal government, spending levels, tax levels, level(s) of the national debt.  The gridlock in Congress laterals fiscal policy to the unelected Federal Reserve...for interest rate "adjustment" in lieu of raising taxes/cutting programs... 

What worries me, and I'm on the record with a long essay back in 2013 (the 150th anniversary of the Battle of Gettysburg) are the historical precedents not only in the United States in the 1850's, on the road to our Civil War, but also the breakdown of parliaments/legislatures between the wars in Europe: 1918-1933.

If you can't make a noontime weekday date, the video will be up at Hal's site along with the many other shows he has done.

Here at:

https://www.youtube.com/@halitics  

Best,

William R. Neil

Frostburg, MD

https://williamrneil.substack.com/publish/posts

Dear Citizens and Elected Officials:

Ordinarily, I would sit on this type of “missive” for several days, if not longer, but the events of this Saturday were moving so fast I felt I have had no choice. In this case if you want to participate in democracy, you have to move fast as a House Speaker in a hot frying pan with no scruples.

The Democratic Party in the House - progressives, conservatives, corporate dems, middle-of-the roaders - voted with only one exception to attempt to buy time with a 45 day reprieve via a temporary spending bill, with no money for Ukraine. It was House Speaker’s McCarthy’s bill and his tactics. McCarthy pulled this reversal of pledges made months ago so fast today, Saturday, September 30th, the Dems were caught flat-footed, stalling for even bare minutes to consider how to respond, before caving and voting 209 for the measure, to support 126 Republicans for 335 votes, well beyond the 290 needed. Only Democratic Representative Mike Quigley, of Illinois’ 5th district in Chicago, voted no on grounds of selling out Ukraine. That took guts to stand against the entire party.

My day began by deciding I couldn’t let the Republican Right’s most ideologically fanatical caucus help do in the Republic by keeping alive tactics which most Americans deplore: the budget/spending hostage crisis. Therefore I called selected members named in the New York Times a few days ago as the hardliners, despite the fact that Congressional Switchboard operating procedures want to winnow callers down to those who live in the Districts of the asked for Rep. While I can understand that motive, don’t American citizens living anywhere in the country have a right to register objections when Congressmen/women take outrageous ideological stands? I would hope so, so one has to find a way around the screening to register with the culprits. And culprits they are. In the past, at least since 2001, I’ve called the Republican Right the most ideologically motived faction, now Party, since the Bolsheviks who came to power in 1917. It sounds like an exaggeration, but I’d be happy to defend it front of any poly sci department, and Brookings too…and on the Right, in CATO, AEI…take your pick.

Below, find the Email I sent out to the Maryland delegates I know, and anticipating the Senate vote which hasn’t happened yet as I write this posting at 4:30 PM on Saturday afternoon.

Dear Senators, Maryland House Delegation:

Well, all your offices were closed, Senators too, as if this was just another Saturday in the early fall.  But it wasn't, and this citizen in a dying republic had a very difficult time in communicating with his Reps and Senators due to  reluctance to staff.  

House Speaker McCarthy ran circles around you and used the fear, Democratic fear of explaining a shutdown  (after maneuvering the terms to make it so) - and you had plenty of good reasons not to capitulate to the maneuvers of the last several hours, not the least of which was honoring the commitment to Ukraine so well explained this afternoon by Senator Warner of VA ...you had perfectly explainable and defensible reasons to give the public for not accepting this type of fiscal blackmail - and getting  into the ultimate showdown sooner rather than in November.    

Once again, like Putin wielding his wild nuclear blusterings, the Dems have caved to the most blatant gambles and gamblers, letting the Republicans win once again and move you off the high ground.  If there is any left in politics. 

It's what I've come to expect from  a Democratic Party that cannot pass a national minimum wage, provide health care for all, give Ukraine the weapons it needs to win instead of to bleeding to death stranded on barbed wire, its civilians freezing in the dark, can't provide for child care, time off with paid leave, dental and eye care for Medicare senior recipients, affordable housing, or increase Social Security the way Richard Nixon - Richard Nixon! - did before resigning. Or, through six presidents  - six! - pass labor law reforms that would level the playing field.  

And the national conversation on sites like CNN left all the serious political/economic spectrum views on debt, deficits and their history and remedies out of the  discussion so it all came down to inside the Congress maneuvers, not any deeper understanding - such that Wall Street was apparently not worried over this level of debt -it’s been building through the tax cuts and high gain years, many years for now - certainly for the past two.  No dissenting economists appeared during the long run up to today to give some background and historical views, which go back decades on these blackmail tactics.  No public references to the level of Japanese debt to GDP - which if the "iron laws” of conservative economics are to be believed, ought to have collapsed the Japanese economy since its debacle in 1990-1991.  “Some iron laws” of debt to GDP ratios!  Don't you think the public deserves better, or do you relish keeping them in the pens the Right, the Libertarians and the corporate Dems have constructed for us?  

Shallow and intellectually bankrupt.  Democracy deserves better.

See you at the debacle come November.

In deep disappointment,

William R. Neil

Frostburg, MD 

Picture for the NY Times by Haiyun Jiang, Sept. 30, 2023, after the Senate Vote 88-9 for the continuing resolution (“CR”) passed earlier in the day by the House, 335-90.

Editor’s Note and Update: October 1, 2023:

A reader contacted me this morning, someone I don’t know and haven’t heard from before to berate me for my interpretation that somehow the Speaker, Kevin McCarthy had bested the Dem leadership in an inside the Beltway, inside Congress chess match in the tactical thickets of procedures. I said I understood entirely that view, that mine would be a minority opinion, but this morning I also found this on YouTube: “Victory Lap.”

Actually, another title appears when you launch the video and it reads: “Speaker McCarthy Takes Victory Lap After Last-Minute Funding Bill Passes the House.”

I also wrote the following to this reader:

“I can understand you view____, it's probably the majority one.   But the tactic of shut down lives on, and it seems to me that the denial of funding for Ukraine was no minor oversight or concession, but an indicator to the disruption party(ies) that the tactic has not exhausted its usefulness.  I say that because what Senator Warner had to say before the vote was that there was a good majority in the Senate and the House to keep the funding going, but yet the leadership of both parties could not keep it in.

As for the shallowness of the reporting - I am not a fan of inside the Beltway/Congress details - almost all of the time it conceals rather than reveals the real forces at work, but it so dominated the coverage you couldn't avoid it - but for all the run up - months now - a serious discussion of Dem (centrists vs left)  vs Repub vs Hard Right views on federal debt/deficits, spending, taxes was entirely avoided so that for the public the entire process seems devoid of any serious principles.  Tactics overwhelm all.  And in keeping with President Biden's seemingly characteristic "drift" - vis a vis the Russian invasion in the first place, preceded by the year long negotiations with Joe Manchin and now McCarthy breaking the deal Biden and the Dem leadership thought they had months ago...well, I see a pattern  here that sends to wrong signal to tyrants, foreign and domestic.

Those factors were behind my thinking.  

Further thoughts: here are two resources for readers who want to get to the figures about the US federal debt, usually expressed as a percentage of GDP. Currently it stands at about 119%-122% (GDP is $27 Trillion; Nat. Debt $33 billion) with the data from the St. Louis Fed, heavily relied upon by serious economists for their data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S; take a close look at the chart from the “Fred” (the St. Louis Fed) which plots over 60 years the ratio we’re talking about, Debt to GDP and see what generalizations you can draw about economic growth and the federal debt. When the debt grew most rapidly after the 2008-2009 financial crisis, and the ratio soared, the US had what the Economist magazine called the longest period of uninterrupted economic growth (not always robust, but without a recession) from March of 2009 until March of 2020 and the COVID shock. I don’t want to get carried away, but this is what I mean by a serious discussion…have you heard any attempt by the Dem leadership or the President to talk about this, one of core issues dividing the far Right from the Dem. Centrists, much less the economic left and MMTers? I haven’t and so it goes, the far Right ideological radicals driving for a minimalist federal state and budget, a dramatically lower debt…to what end? Ends in themselves. And here is a private source crunching the same numbers and in addition, having a long list of other nation’s ratios. CEIC data

Just a little thought behind the “polemic.”